Driving
Disrupted:
Driverless Cars

Image Source: Rinspeed

From Automobiles to Auto Mobility!
The autonomous vehicle, driverless or self-driving car will be one of the
greatest technological developments of the next decade (if not all
time).
It will profoundly change life on earth.
For the past century our car-centric culture has shaped infrastructure and
ideals, landscape and lifestyle, ethics and enterprise. We rely on the
mobility that cars provide us more than ever, but the car’s purpose and
meaning changes as the driver fades out.
When the car drives itself, what we do in our cars and with our cars is
exponentially different. When the car is intelligent, intuitive and
adaptive, our relationship to the car alters. When the car builds itself,
environments and economies are reshaped.
This report looks at the players, technologies and trends in the
autonomous vehicle space and paints a picture of probable futures for
citizens, businesses and marketers.
Buckle up. Bumpy roads ahead.

Image Source: Wikipedia

2

Automatic Autopilot

Te
xt

Image Source: Airplane

Ships have been using “self-steering gear” since the 1950s, while the first “autopiloting”
of an airplane occurred in 1914. The “Ottopilot” in the movie Airplane is an apropos
metaphor epitomizing the joys of sitting back and letting the machine do all the work.
Sources: nobscotusps.org flightclub.jalopnik.com3

Driverless Visions in Low Gear

1953 2014

Image Source: paleofuture.com

Image Source: Rinspeed

Since the car was invented automakers have gradually introduced automation from automatic shift
to adaptive cruise control; self-parking to collision-avoidance; lane-keeping assistance to brakeassist and traction control. The introduction of new driverless technologies will be a gradual one,
slowly upshifting us into the future.

Science Fiction to Science Fact: Autonomous Cars
Shaped by Hollywood
2015
Tesla cars will be
90% autonomous

2017
Google’s driverless
car available to public

2015
Audi to start selling
low-speed
autonomous cars

2017
Volvo to start
selling driverless
cars

2016
Mobileye bolt on
hands-free kit on
sale
2016
GM offering “super
cruise” on Cadillacs

2020
GM, Mercedes-Benz,
Audi, Nissan, BMW and
Renault to release
semi- autonomous
vehicles

2026-2035
When several sources
predict autonomous
cars will be standard
issue

2020
Volvo will sell “crashfree” autonomous
car

2018
Nissan to start selling
driverless cars

2019-20
Tesla to offer “full
autopilot” capability

REALITY

2035
Most cars will operate
independent from
human control

2024
Jaguar to launch
driverless car

2025
Daimler, GM and
Ford
expect
to
release self- driving
models

ieee.org

2040
IEEE estimates that up
to 75% of all vehicles
will be autonomous

Sources:WSJ
Wikipedia

FICTION

Total Recall
Demolition Man

Back to the Future Part III

2032
Auto-mode cars

2015
Hoverboa
ds

Blade Runner

`

r

2019
Anti-gravity, flying
cars

I, Robot

2035
Fully autonomous
cars

2084
Drivers replaced
with robots
Minority Report

2054
Police can override
autonomous
vehicle software

The Fifth Element

2263
Autonomous Flying
Cars
Image Source: Volvo

5

Today’s Driverless Vehicles
Look Like Props in a 70s SciFi
Flick

Image Source: zeggenschap.info

Image Source: transportxtra.com

The oldest and most extensive driverless Personal Rapid Transport (PRT) system has been
operating in Morgantown, West Virginia since 1975. Heathrow Airport has been using PRT
vehicles since 2011. The newest, most modern PRT system launched in Suncheon, South
Korea while Sardinia, Italy launched driverless buses earlier this year.
Sources: Governing eltis.org

Bolt-On Driverless Systems are
Reminiscent of 80s TV Shows

Image Source: getcruise.com

An entirely new industry of DIY “autonomous driving kits” is being born – loosely inspired by
Knight Rider’s KIT – to turn manual cars into driverless cars. This will make aftermarket upgrades
affordable, such as the $10,000 “bolt-on” driverless system called “Cruise.” Retro and vintage cars
turned driverless give new meaning to “Back to the Future.”

Design Seems Inspired by
Transformer Toys and Video
Games

Image Source: aeromobil.com

Image Source; gdefon.ru

Auto design is converging with aeronautic design, such as the autonomous “Aeromobil.”
Autos are not only becoming more intelligent, they’re becoming more modular, adaptable and
transmutable. Next: the “auto-mutation” of the autonomous automobile.

Who & What’s Driving Autonomousness?

Source: Insurance Journal

Image Source: Jordan Fashion

9

Loudest Voices Coming from
Auto, Tech & Academia
Autonomous Car Influencers & Champions
Co-Founder of Google &
Leader of Google X

Sergey Brin

CEO of General Motors

Mary Barra

MIT Autonomous Expert &

Prof. of Mechanical and Ocean Engineering

40

John Leonard
CEO & Co-Founder of Udacity

Sebastian Thrun

CEO of Tesla / Inventor &
Investor in Disruptive
Tech

Elon Musk
Co-Founder of PayPal &
Palantir / Investor

Peter Thiel
Image Source: theverge.com 1

Tech Driving Innovation: Cars Are
More Computer Than Machine

Image Source: appinions

Advances Across Industries
Are Leapfrogging Driverless
Cars
Adjacent Autonomous Driving Devices
Beam Telepresence
Robots

TELEPRESENCE
Automated Robots Deliver
Food to Hospital Patients

HOSPITAL
BOTS

Autonomous Liferaft

LIFERAFTS
Volvo European Safe Road
Trains for the Environment
Project

iTRUCKING

DARPA’s Gladiator

40

UNMANNED
TANKS
Mobile Weather Data
Collection Network

TELEMATICS

Amazon Delivery Drones

DRONES
NOAA Solar Ocean Explorer

SUBMARINES
Image Source: theverge.com

1

Local Governments Are Committing
to Driverless Infrastructure…
Autonomous Legislation as of May 2014

“Michigan is building
a driverless town for
testing autonomous
cars.”
Source:
technologyreview.com

“An amendment
condoned by The United
Nations Convention on
road traffic will soon
allow testing of
autonomous vehicles in
the European Union,
Mexico, Chile and
Russia.”
Source: Insurance Journal

…Which Could Be More Divisive
Than “Red” and “Blue” States
Image Source: Center for Internet and Society

Will Your Life Be
Different?

Image Source: recode.net

1

Autonomous Cars Will Give You
Back > 4 Years Of Your Life

9

days / year

Average time
equivalent Americans
spend commuting

51

minutes

Average length of
commute to work in the US

4.3

years

Average time a person will
spend driving in their
lifetime
Distractify

15
Average time equivalent
days / year

Moms spend driving kids
UK
around
Telegraph

The Economist: American Census
Bureau

Image Source: aerovid.ru

1

You Will Spend More Time Doing
the Things You Love, Not Driving
Playing Games

Working

Stuck in traffic? Fire up your
car’s gaming center to play
chess or Words With Friends
against your car.

Have you ever wanted to bill
hours for your commute? This
dream could be reality when your
car becomes a mobile office.

Watching Movies
Cars of the future will
undoubtedly be entertainment
hubs, featuring built in tablets
and TVs

Sleeping
Some commuters might
consider planning their lives to
get a full 8 hours of sleep during
their commutes

What Americans Say They
Intend to Do in their
Autonomous Cars
source: carinsurance.com

7
7 %
%

8%

10%
21
%

26
%
21
%

Texting / Talking
with Friends
Technology, both new and
current, will adapt to social
travels.

Other
These
respondents
listed
activities such as ‘watch the
road’ or ‘enjoy the scenery.’

Reading
Imagine a smart car that
recommends articles or stories
based on the expected travel
time.

Image Source: hubspot.net

1

Your Car Will Be The Hub Of
Your Personal Smart Grid

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems
conceptualize how smart cars
could be incorporated into the
extended power grid. Cars of
the future will share, store and
produce our energy.

Image Source: Sis Solar Ventures

The development of autonomous cars is happening in parallel to the clean energy movement.
We will lose the driver, but we will gain in energy. Morgan Stanley predicts that autonomous
cars will save the United States $1.3 trillion annually by lowering fuel consumption.

You Will Rotate Between
Multiple Mobility Machines

Image Source: elektrobike-online.com

Automakers like Mercedes-Benz are realizing that they don’t just build vehicles but rather
enable mobility, so they are moving into new modes of transportation. People will share multiple
specialized vehicles for varying uses. Utility of design will increase.
18

You Will Share Your Car(s)

300k

Shared driverless cars
could meet all of
- MIT Research
Singapore’s driving needs

Image Source: www.geekinsydney.com

By 2021, Ann Arbor could become the first American city with a shared fleet of networked,
driverless Cars. Autonomous cars will be introduced into society through existing fleets:
car shares, taxis, rentals and corporate (e.g., delivery businesses like FedEx, Pizza Hut).

You Will Build Your Car From
the Ground Up

GM Autonomy Concept Vehicle Skateboard Chassis
Image Source: General Motors

The future aesthetics and customization of the autonomous car vehicle body will further
accelerate with wide-spread adoption of the skateboard chassis and drive-by-wire system.
The skateboard chassis will house all major car components:
propulsion, motors, suspension, batteries and the drive-by-wire system which controls all
vehicle movements electronically.
The vehicle body essentially sits on

You Will Individualize Your Car

Image Source: autopista.es

Car bodies will be hyper-customized as they will be 3D printed and fitted atop power
trains. Every car on the road can and will look different.
21

You Will Buy Your Car in Pieces
Flex Power Base engine can transform into
5 outdoor equipment machines.

The mission of Project Ara is to create a
modular phone, allowing consumers to add
an extra battery or a more powerful
camera.
Image Source: gizmodo.com

Image Source: mediamagazine.ru 2

Your Car Will Be Bundled With Your House

Image Source: mikeandmaaike.com

Autos can be designed to match the environment or architecture. Architectural firms will start
to design the auto body for a seamless look. Driverless cars will “dock” in the home.

You Will Look Out the
Windows and Learn

Image Source: Copenhagen Institute of Interaction Design

Expect windows and surfaces to become touchscreens, allowing passengers to interact with
surroundings using hand gestures and augmented reality projections. Transportation will play a
big role in education and “MOOCCs” (massive online open car courses).
24

You Will Entertain in Your Car

Image Source: mikeandmaaike.com

The “driver” role will evolve into a “host” role. Cars will become the new “3rd Place,” replacing
cafes and retail. Car parties will supplant car pools. Auto interiors will look more like rooms than
cockpits. Passengers will sit wherever they like and entirely new industries like “Auto Decor”
will emerge.

You Will Cook and Entertain
in Your Car

Image Source: caranddriver.com

Food services, grocers, QSRs, food brands and kitchen appliances will be designed for in-car
use since time on the road will be spent eating and cooking. The car could literally pick up fresh
ingredients from the source as the meal is being prepared, giving “farm-to-fork” a new meaning.
26

And Your Car Will be Cooking

Image Source: rancidmanu.blogspot.com

In-car entertainment will be expanded. Privacy and constant mobility will make autonomous cars
the ideal space for illicit activities. Expect new, car-based business models in the sex, drug, and
alcohol industries. Alas, declining birthrates may reverse as busy professionals use newfound
time to go on “driverless dates.”
27

You Will Be More Productive

$645

Billion

Boost in annual
productivity from
driverless cars
Morgan
Stanley

Image Source: drive.com

The autonomous vehicle will increase productivity, especially for people who work from the
road (e.g., real estate, sales). Driverless autos will feature high-speed bandwidth and 2-way live
streaming. The boost in productivity will increase GDP and enable many businesses to adopt
4- day work weeks.

You Will Live Longer and Healthier

1.3

Million

People die in road
crashes annually
Association for Safe International Road
Travel

1,060
People injured daily in
crashes from
Popular
distracted driving Science

Driverless cars
are

10x
Elon
safer than human- Musk
driven cars

Image Source: personalinjurycapecod.com

Automobile accidents are the leading cause of death amongst young people (ages 15-29)
and the #2 cause of death worldwide.
In addition to reducing deaths from crashes,
driverless cars will reduce cancer as they decrease anxiety and driving stress. Happiness and
well-being correlate to the length of time spent commuting in traffic.
29

You Will be Independent Longer

500
Older adults injured in
auto accidents daily in
the US
cdc.gov
Image Source: pikdit.com

Autonomous cars will offer the elderly independence from caregivers. They will give the
aging population a better quality of life, as well as help them to participate in the workforce
30

Your Kids Will be More Independent
Nearly

26%

Of the global population is
below the age of 15
Index Mundi

Image Source: Tommy Kris Photography

Autonomous cars will likely feature “kid mode” for short distances, with limited navigation controls.
Gen Z will grow up adapted to longer trips and distances. Helicopter parents will be replaced by
“Autonomous Parents” who give their kids independence and encourage exploration.
31

We Will See Societal Bifurcation

$7k

Cost that autonomy will add to
the sticker price of a car in 2025
Popular Science

Image Source: wonderfulengineering.com

“Manual” vs. “auto” will replace the “stick” vs. “automatic” debate. While it’s expected that
autonomous cars will not cost much more, driving purists/enthusiasts will buck the trend.
They will flaunt their manual driving and taunt the orderliness of the machines. Roof sensors
on driverless cars will replace the hood ornament’s prestige.
32

We Will See Reverse Urbanization

3.5

12%

Billion

Global urban-dwelling
population
United Nations
Reverse migration

Increase in America’s
urban population,
2000-2010
US Census Bureau

Image Source: Wikipedia

Perceptions of distance will change as driverless vehicles will make travel more bearable, if not
enjoyable. Many will view the ease of travel as an invitation to move out of urban centers. We
can expect suburban areas to sprawl out from cities, and rural communities to thrive.
Source: US Census
33

We Will Have Fewer Premature Births...

36%
Rise in premature births in
the US over past 25 years
CDC

Image Source: mamashealth.com

Premature births are linked to auto air pollution; a Columbia University study found a
comparatively sharp drop in premature births around EZPass toll booths, which encourage
smoother traffic flows and lower emissions. Roughly 50% of premature births involve
cesarean sections, recently linked to a baby’s microbial health effecting overall health.
34

...But More Substance Abuse

+3%
Increase in DUI deaths in
the
US over the past year
National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration

Image Source: ryryinkorea.blogspot.com

When the designated driver is a car the world’s partiers party harder. Alcohol and drug sales
will likely increase as they can be consumed in the privacy of a moving vehicle. Without a
“reason” to stay sober (i.e., DUI conviction), the legal drinking age will also likely drop.
35

We Will Have Better Maintained Roads and
New Routes

Image Source: quoteko.com

There will be less need for road signage, and yet we will be able to travel at higher speeds.
Smoother rides will make it possible for people to do delicate jobs within their car (e.g.,
surgery, artwork). Cars will offer different experiences: “get there fast” or “take the scenic
route”. Roads will have more wear-and-tear requiring more maintenance overall.
3

We Will See Property Values Rebound
3-6 Hours Outside Cities

Image Source: flickr.com

If getting to and from places is more seamless and enjoyable, then why fly or bother with trains?
Mass transit will be threatened. In addition, people will take up weekend homes that are 3-6
hours outside of major urban areas and will sleep overnight in their vehicles. Night road traffic
will increase.
3

We Will See a Surge in
3D Printed Organs

79
People receive organ
transplants daily in the
US
US Dept of Health &
Human Servcies

Image Source; japantimes.co.jp

Given that autonomous cars can dramatically decrease the number of traffic accidents, one can
expect the availability of organ donations to drop. This in turn will likely fuel advances in 3D
printed biomaterial research.
Or, organs (e.g., heart, liver, kidney) will be “grown in a petri
dish.”
38

We Will Have a More Inclusive Society

50 million
Adults live with epilepsy
worldwide
World Health
Organization

/

6.6 million
Legally blind adults living
in America
National Federation of the Blind

Image Source: kenguru.com

There are millions of vital people living with disabilities or health problems who
find driving too challenging. Autonomous cars will enable people with
physical and mental challenges to participate more fully in society.
39

We Will Have New Forms of ID

Image Source: infiniteunknown.net

The driver’s license is currently the de facto form of identification in an
increasingly security-minded culture. The need for driver’s licenses will drop along
with driving skills. The obsolescence of the driver’s license will jumpstart the
widespread use of other forms of identification, such as biometrics and chip
4

We Will Enjoy More Public Spaces

273 million
Trees could thrive on just
1% of our paved areas
absorbing 1.2b metric tons
of Carbon Dioxide
Sources: National Atlas, Grist, FWR,
EPA

Image Source: vancouver.ca/viva

In the future there will be no need for parking lots or parking garages in urban areas.
Autonomous cars will be constantly in motion, able to park in extremely tight spaces or
drive themselves outside of city limits to park. This will allow for the repurposing of valuable
land, ideally for parks and event spaces.

We Will Have Internet Everywhere

20%
Of the US does not have
Broadband Internet
PewInternet

Image Source:
mikeandmaaike.com

Roads for driverless cars must be built on information highways since
autonomous cars rely on networked data. In order for driverless cars to take off there will need
to be ubiquitous hi-speed wireless broadband access. A race towards Internet everywhere is

42

We Will Enjoy More Efficient Government

$6

Billion

Annual revenue
generated in
the US from parking
tickets and speeding
citations
Trapster.com

Image Source: telegraph.co.uk

Towns that rely on speed traps and parking ticket quotas will experience budget shortfalls,
so they will be forced to seek new forms of revenue. This will not only be a catalyst for
innovation but will make constituents less resentful of local government.
43

We Will Pay Less (or Nothing) for Insurance

$871

Billion

Annual cost to Americans
from traffic accidents
Source: BBC

Image Source: Broadway Carl

Driverless cars will reduce the number of auto accidents and insurance claims, which will in
turn force the insurance industry to explore new models. Many other businesses will be
disrupted by driverless vehicles including: taxis, public transportation, logistics, cargo, delivery
services, gas stations, parking lots and of course auto manufacturing.
4

Business Implications of Autonomous Cars

Image Source: phantasrail.co.uk

4

10 Ways Marketing Will be Totally Transformed

1.

Out-of-home advertising and billboards will respond and customize to
passersby

2.

Rush-hour/drive-time radio will adapt or die

3.

Entertainment (and ads) will need to be road-ready

4.

Content will be designed for Virtual Reality car windows

5.

New retail destinations will pop up in unusual, out of the way
locations

6.

Retail on wheels will explode

7.

Products will be introduced just for in-car use (cooking, entertaining, learning,
working, gaming, etc.)

8.

Businesses will be launched for the hiding and control of geolocation data

9.

Social networks will evolve into networks of social roads

10. Brands will sponsor routes and “curated road experiences”

Image Source: watchcaronline.blogspot.com

46

10 Jobs of the Future Created by
Autonomous Cars
1.

Ethical Programmer —

2.

Parking Lot Ranger —

3.

Liability Data Investigator —

4.

Pave & Paint Pro —

5.

3D Printer Auto Stylist —

6.

Convoy Party Planner —

7.

Anti-Hacking Mechanic —

8.

Personal Vehicle Trainer —

9.

Sensor Technician —

10. OS Therapist —
4

Autonomous Car Topics We’re Tracking…
BUSINESS

Singapore Driverless
Regulation

Google X
Autonomous

NHTSA
Microsoft
Apple &
Tesla?

Cruise
Qualcomm
Mobileye
DMV

Beyond
Apollo
2017

Resilient
2016

Space
Command
Redemption
2016
Last
Voyage of
Demeter
2016

Autonomous
Car
The Martian
2015

Maze Runner
2015

Prometheus 2
2016

X-Men:
Apocalypse
2016

EU - Driverless
Regulation

CA, NV, MI,
FL - Driverless
States

UK- Driverless
Regulation

3D Mapping

Lost Income
from Driving/
Parking
Tickets

Bandwidth
Deficit

Economic
Disparity

Sensors

Camera &
Light

Processing

Solar

Radar & Lidar

Telematic
s
Allegiant
2016

Avatar 2
2016

MEDIA & CULTURE

Auto
Insurance
Liability

FCC
(Tom
Wheeler)

Intel

Ann ArborDriverless
Town

Elon MuskDriverless
Tesla

ISSUES

RussiaDriverless
Regulation

GPS
Fuel Cells
Bandwidth
(5G & WiFi)

Data Privacy

3D Printing
Auto
Bodies

Beacons

TECHNOLOGY

4

Want to Apply Autonomous Car Insights
to Your Business?

We will continue to track Autonomous Cars, adding a global
perspective from our Scout Network (now in 11 countries) combined
with international social listening. Stay tuned.
Reach out to us if you want to explore how to apply these learnings —
and future Autonomous Car insights — to your business. We can
package insights in a variety of formats, such as:
• Customized “Autonomous World” reports, designed for sharing and
educating

•

Immersive get-smart-fast-on-the-future-of-Driverless-Cars workshops

• Autonomous insights-to-applied-marketing roundtable discussions
• Bi-weekly “Autonomous Trend Pulses” — shareable newsletters on shifting
culture and marketing opportunities

Image Source: Volvo

4

agency of
relevance at the
cultural strategy
core
cultural
intelligence

content &
distribution
-

-

Social & Cultural
Listening

-

-

Competitive Intelligence &
War Gaming

-

Segment Analysis &

-

Tracking Topic Deep Dives

-

Event Tracking

-

Issue

-

Monitoring

-

Real-time Burst

-

Identification Channel

-

Analysis
Content & Influencer

innovation

Strategy Editorial & Cultural

-

ADVERTISIN
G
AGENCY

SOCIAL
AGENCY

Pre-Planned
(70/30)
Content
Production - Online
and Offline
Real-Time Content
Production Real-Time
Commerce

-

Social Media Content (short and
long form) - posts, tweets,
vines, videos, blogs, etc.

powered by

EVENT
MARKETIN
G AGENCY

Community
Management Influencer

BRAN
D

Outreach
Channel Optimization & Fan
Base Development

Calendars
Macro Trend Identification
& Quantification

Analytics & Measurement
Amplification

-

Projecting Segments into the
Future (Consumers of the
Future)

-

Product, Service &
Packaging Development

-

PR
AGENCY

Business Model Design
& Reimagination

-

-

-

Business Context Analysis
Futurism
Whitespace Identification
Brand/Partner &
Acquisition
Recommendations

Real-Time Media

SEARCH
AGENCY
DIGITAL
AGENCY

Sparks & Honey Offerings
STRATEGY
WORKSHOPS

INDUSTRY REPORTS
25+ report-types that help
you translate high-energy
cultural moments into
valuable opportunities for
your brand including:

Deep-dive sessions where
we focus on innovation
opportunities for your
specific brand based upon
fringe signals and cultural
conversations.

• Competitive Assessment Report

WAVE
BRANDING

• “Future Of” Report
• In-Depth Industry Report

Proven methodology
for creating, approving,
launching and
distributing content
rapidly to take
advantage of cultural
moments.

• Innovation Report
• Media & Technology Usage Report
• Up & Coming Celebrity Report
SOCIAL MEDIA
Applying the Wave Branding cultural platform, sparks & honey supports:
Community Management
‣ Fan/Follower Acquisition
‣ Channel Management & Administration
‣ Ongoing Fan/Follower Engagement
‣ Social Media Infrastructure
Social Media Insights & Analytics
‣ Sentiment Analysis
‣ Industry Insights
‣ Content Performance

Influencer Programs & Content Distribution
‣ Cultural Influencers & Affiliates
‣ Blogger Outreach
‣ Content Distribution
Content Creation & Campaign Integration
‣ 360 Campaign Integration
‣ App Development
‣ PR Support Programs (pre-buzz, live coverage,
post-event buzz)

Sign up on our website to receive updates and future reports:
www.sparksandhoney.com
For more information:
212.894.5100
info@sparksandhoney.com
@sparksandhoney
bigthink.com/blogs/amped
facebook.com/sparksandhoney