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The Paradox of Exceptional Marketing Rand Fishkin | Individual Contributor | Moz Why is the Night Sky So Quiet? The mathematical odds of Earth being the only life-bearing planet in the galaxy are exceptionally low. Milky Way Galaxy: 200-400B Stars ~100B Planets ~11B Earth-like Planets Orbiting Sun-like Stars SOURCE: Planetary Habitability Laboratory 13.8 BILLION YRS AGO If life can form on other planets (or if meteors/ comets can pass life between planets), there are millions of life-bearing candidates. Two Possibilities: 1) We’re alone (for now) 2) We’re unable to perceive whomever else is out there (and they’ve decided to ignore us) Type III Civilization A civilization colonizing enough of the galaxy to be perceptible to us here on Earth doesn’t take long on a cosmic time scale. If any such civilization existed in the last 13 Billion years (and their wave emissions lasted long enough), we could perceive them today. Something must be filtering out any life that could colonize the galaxy The Great Filter Commonly achieved evolutionary leaps Type III Civilization Species Origin The Great Filter An evolutionary leap that no civilization has passed (yet?). Maybe We’re the First? Maybe We’re Extremely Rare? Or, Maybe, We’re F#@%d Fermi’s Paradox It is no good to try to stop knowledge from going forward. Ignorance is never better than knowledge. -Enrico Fermi (1901-1954) To Learn More Read: Wait But Why – The Fermi Paradox A Similar Paradox Exists in the Web Marketing World The Average New Startup Won’t Last 2 Years source The Web is Huge 200+ Million Active Websites Most People Will Only Ever Visit 200-2,000 (1-10 in a Million) The Millions of Search Results Beyond Page One Are Practically Invisible Recent Data Suggests Searchers Are Less Biased By Position #1, But As Unlikely As Ever to Visit Page 2+ Nearly Every Web-Connected Human Adopted Social Networking in Its First 7 Years of Existence But standing out in the ever-increasing stream of social sharing is an enormous challenge. Avg Brand Engagement Rate 4.21% 0.073% 0.069% 0.035% Data Via Forrester Research There are ~100X as many non-spam emails sent each day as there are Facebook messages and posts Data Via Mailchimp’s Benchmarks 5.3 Trillion display and retargeting ads are served annually: 1,700 per Internet user per month. In North America, less than 1 in 10,000 ad views result in a click Being Signal, Rather Than Noise, Is An Immense Marketing Challenge Our Job: Take Companies from INVISIBLE KNOWN & LOVED But, those immense marketing challenges stand in our path Us We Need to Identify, Understand, and Break Through These Filters if We’re to Create Lasting Companies & Great Marketing Six of Marketing’s Great Filters AUDIENCE COST MESSAGE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE SERENDIPITY FLYWHEEL Ability to Reach the Right Audience Eric couldn’t have been more literal! Tip #1: If You Have Great Customers Today, Find Ways to ID & Target Their Clones Long before anyone searches for this They search for this Tip #2: Know What Your Audience Does Before They Search For You/Your Solution Even one person passionate about the service can get it in front of many others Tip #3: Even a Small Element of Virality is Worth Repeated Investment and Testing Mark was among the first to create a comprehensive guide to Ello. Timing + content = domination. Tip #4: Early Adoption Gives an Unfair Advantage Crafting a Message that Resonates Tip #1: My Best Content and Stories Always Resonated Offline Before I Made Them Online. If you know that this headline works better, change your page title and social shares, too! Tip #2: Apply The CRO You Learn in Paid Media to Your Inbound Efforts Tip #3: Consistency of Message Matters. Consistency of Format is Boring. Tip #4: Powerful Messages Are Simple Tip #4: Powerful Messages Are Simple Tip #4: Powerful Messages Are Simple Fitbit isn’t selling “what,” they’re selling “why.” Tip #5: Promoting Your Self/Company is Hard. Promoting a Cause/Mission is Far Easier. Cost of Customer Acquisition Paid Marketing Spend + All Marketing Salaries + All Marketing T&E + All Brand-Focused Spend + All Marketing Tech Costs Sales Spend + All Sales Salaries + All Sales T&E + Deal-Closing Spend + All Sales Tech Costs Tip #1: Break Out Costs of Marketing vs. Sales Trying to build competence here early is far easier than building it after your paid marketing machine is running. Tip #2: Spend Early in Unpaid Marketing Channels Tip #3: Measure Acquisition Channels by CLTV (not just conversion rate) A free trial may initially show worse converting customers than a demo, but if you follow up w/ right-looking trialers, you can drastically improve close rates & CLTV Tip #4: If Possible, Enable Customer Qualification that Scales Without Salespeople Enabling Serendipity Phone Call Dinner Volunteering Email Reply Coffee Conference Things You “Really Don’t Have Time For” Tip #1: Increase the Potential Vectors of Exposure And that’s probably why the Batman won’t show up Tip #2: Things You Hate Probably Won’t Bring Serendipity Fullcontact FTW! Tip #3: Know Something About People Before You Interact A Story: Some Recent Serendipity Find Your Competitive Advantage Tip #1: “We could make a better version of that” “We can do something 10X better than any of these” Tip #2: Consistently Ask “Could We Do That 10X Better?” Strengths Facebook Video Google+ Spending time Twitter getting up to speed SEO these may be a Retargeting on net loss. Content Community Partnerships Weaknesses Social Ads LinkedIn Trade Show Booths Affiliate Display Email PPC Whitepapers Content/Native Ads Tip #3: Don’t Get Bogged Down By Your Weaknesses Strengths Facebook Google+ Video Twitter SEO Retargeting Content Community Partnerships Weaknesses Social Ads LinkedIn Trade Show Booths Hitting cruise control on Affiliatethese, rather than Email PPC pressing an advantage Display seriously hurt, too. Whitepapers could Content/Native Ads Tip #4: Don’t Get Complacent About Your Strengths A Flywheel That Scales Without Friction Get links Grow network Amplify Publish Grow authority Rank for slightly more competitive terms & phrases Earn search traffic Plan for a traffic graph like this and you’re doomed. Tip #1: Anticipate the First Few Revolutions of Any Marketing Flywheel to Be Insanely Challenging This is much more realistic. (via Crain’s Detroit) Tip #1: Anticipate the First Few Revolutions of Any Marketing Flywheel to Be Insanely Challenging Get links Grow network Amplify Publish Grow authority Rank for slightly more competitive terms & phrases Our social efforts never grow our audience… that’s what’s missing. Earn search traffic Tip #2: Relentlessly Search for Your Flywheel’s Friction Because Moz has had a lot of success driving organic traffic, re-targeting is a huge additional force on our flywheel Tip #3: Once a Flywheel is Moving, Any Additional Force Pushes it Faster – Leverage Those Forces! There’s Another Possibility There is a Type III Civilization, But They’re Not Friendly. Type III Civilization Species Origin The Great Culling To prevent competition, a civilization may be killing off any who make it too far. “(Messaging extraterrestrials is) deeply unwise and immature… The newest children in a strange and uncertain cosmos should listen quietly for a long time, patiently learning about the universe and comparing notes, before shouting into an unknown jungle that we do not understand.” - Carl Sagan (source), 1934-1996 Competitors: 19% Competitors beating you in your own marketing channels: <19% The 800lb gorilla competitors do not, however, appear to be the great filters in our world. Source Marketing (especially through inbound channels) appears to be a rarely contested and, thus, uniquely powerful way to build a competitive advantage and barrier to entry. The Paradox of Exceptional Marketing Rand Fishkin | Individual Contributor | Moz